In his article today, SI.com's Peter King made some bold predictions about the upcoming 2005 NFL season, which starts in earnest on Sunday:
"NFC North: Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit. The Vikings play as well on offense as when Randy Moss roamed the tundra, and they're better on defense with Fred Smoot covering everything that moves. I don't trust Green Bay's defense, period. I like the Bears' D a lot, so much that Chicago could pass Green Bay if Kyle Orton is competent. Detroit will be the best last-place team in football, but that won't count for much when Steve Mariucci is being judged after the season."
"Offensive Rookie: 1.
Kyle Orton, QB, Chicago. Sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle. When I saw the 6-4 Boilermaker throw in training camp five weeks ago, I said, "Who is this kid?'' What a wing. I applaud
Lovie Smith for making the tough call here and burying
Chad Hutchison, a limited and mechanical player. Orton is Mr. Potential, strong-armed, confident and smart. He won't have great numbers. He'll struggle early, but I think the advantageous schedule late this month (Cincinnati, bye, at Cleveland) will give him time to catch his breath and learn his craft with coordinator
Ron Turner. Having
Muhsin Muhammad catch 83 balls, some of them thrown in different area codes, will help."
I shot King an e-mail today telling him that, while I share his enthusiasm for Orton and the Bears' defense, I don't share his optimism. We're talking about an offense that has had three quarterbacks this
preseason. We're talking about a defense that was so marred by injury last year that it almost--
almost--made one nostalgic for the heyday of Dave Wannsteadt's tenure as coach (1994 was a banner year, once of only twice since Ditka left that the team's made the playoffs...and considering Da Coach has been gone since his unceremonious ouster after a 5-11 '92 campaign, that's pretty goddamned sad).
Meanwhile, let's take a look at what's happened in that time, shall we?
In 1993, the two hot coaching prospects in the league were Wanny and Bill Cowher. Cowher got snatched up by Pittsburgh, while the McCaskey ambulance thought they'd scored a huge coup in hiring Davey Boy. Twelve seasons later, Wanny's on his third team (Pittsburgh, in fact, although it's the college, not the pro, team--and they, were ranked in the Top 25 NCAA preseason but got their asses handed to them by the Charlie Weiss-coached Notre Dame Fighting Irish). After Wanny (finally) got the hook, the Bears hired Dick Jauron, the former defensive coordinator for Jacksonville. He wasn't a bad coach, but he got blamed for a less-than-stellar '03-'04 season, even though Bears GM Jerry Angelo, who has to be the most inept man to ever manage player decisions on any NFL team (short of Wanny himself, of course), stood to shoulder the blame after two horrendous drafts. Cowher, by the way, is still coaching the Steelers, and the guy I consider to be the second-best coach in the league (after Philadelphia's Andy Reid) led his team, under rookie QB Ben Roethlisburger and a somehow rejuvenated Jerome Bettis, not to mention a kick-ass defense, to a 15-1 record. Jauron is now the defensive coordinator for Detroit, but the jury's still out on how that's going to go.
Lovie Smith is now Chicago's coach, and I really can't make a call on him either way yet. See, Angelo's intrepid planning provided Jonathan Quinn, who bears more than a slight resemblance to long-departed disaster Rick Mirer, as a backup to second-year rookie Rex Grossman last season. Grossman had shown some potential in his first few starts, put in as desperation at the end of Jauron's last season, but he'd gotten hurt in the end. But he was healthy, ready to start the '04-'05 campaign. Yeah. That went out the window with his freak neck injury in the third game, and Chicago never recovered. Jon Quinn stunk up the joint, so we turned to Craig Krenzel, a rookie out of Ohio State--and he actually
won. Three games in a row, in fact. Of course, the brilliance could only last for so long, especially with a sub-40 passer rating, so the Bears turned to their
fourth QB, Chad Hutchinson, who promptly won, in spectacular fashion, his first game against Minnesota, but looked like Quinn's twin in the three games that followed.
So Hutchinson was supposed to be Rex "Chris Chandler Revisited" Grossman's backup. But Grossman got hurt, and Hutch's 0.0 passer rating in the first half of Preseason Game 3 sealed his fate, while Orton's spectacular performances landed him a starting job.
I'm sorry, but it's tough for me to remain optimistic when we haven't had a reliable, dependable, and non-fragile quarterback since Eric Kramer took ever snap in 1995.
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