Find the face behind the voice

Democratic Presidential Rankings

1. Sen. Barack Obama
National ranking: 1 (statistically tied w/Clinton)
Highest poll position: 1 (CA [statistically tied w/Clinton], IL, MI [statistically tied w/Clinton], TX [statistically tied w/Clinton]
Position in Iowa: 3
Position in Nevada: 2
Position in New Hampshire: 2 [statistically tied w/Edwards]
Position in South Carolina: 2

Although Sen. Clinton showed him up with the firefighters, and although the New York Senator retains a large fundraising advantage, she doesn’t have the growing sense of notoriety that Sen. Obama possesses. People aren’t just curious about him; they’re getting to the point of being obsessed with him. Everyone keeps waiting, some with bated breath, for his star to tarnish slightly, but in an incredibly Reaganesque way, nothing seems to stick to him. In addition, independents are leaning on Obama much as they did on John McCain in 2000, especially in Liberal-Independent states like California. This bodes well for his future, especially considering the strong and growing contingent within the Democratic Party that wants nothing to do with Sen. Clinton (call it the Gore Faction).

2. Sen. Hillary Clinton
National ranking: 1 (statistically tied w/Obama)
Highest poll position: 1 (AL, AZ, AR, CA [statistically tied w/Obama], CT, FL, IA [statistically tied w/Edwards], ME, MA, MI [statistically tied w/Obama], MO, NV, NH, OK, PA, RI [statistically insignificant; 42% is undecided], SC, TX [statistically tied w/Obama], UT, VT
Position in Iowa: 1
Position in Nevada: 1
Position in New Hampshire: 1
Position in South Carolina: 1

She had a very strong showing with the firefighters, as mentioned, and she’s raking in the cash quickly. However, despite her early lead, Sen. Obama has pulled in tighter and tighter since announcing in January. Sen. Clinton still owns a commanding lead of the Democratic faithful, but that support is gradually eroding. If this keeps up, she’ll soon fall behind either Gov. Richardson or Sen. Edwards (likely Richardson) as well as Obama. Oh, and don’t be fooled by Clinton’s strong polling number right now; polls are generally 2-3 months slow in showing data change.

3. Sen. John Edwards
National ranking: 3
Highest poll position: 1 (IA [statistically tied w/Clinton], NC)
Position in Iowa: 1
Position in Nevada: 3
Position in New Hampshire: 2 [statistically tied w/Obama]
Position in South Carolina: 3

It sounds like a horrible thing to say, but Sen. Edwards’ stock went up dramatically with the free press surrounding his wife’s cancer. It makes the Edwards family identifiable – human – and gives yet another personal life story to the former senator’s populist message. Edwards also is perceived as very honest, very straightforward, and very straight-talking. He may not want the vice-presidency, and he doesn’t seem poised to take it the way Gov. Richardson does. However, a ticket with his name on it seems to resonate quite well with primary voters, especially in New Hampshire, where he is third to Sens. Clinton and Obama (but trails Obama by only 3 percentage points), and Iowa, where he trails only Clinton (and by a statistically insignificant margin).

4. Gov. Bill Richardson
National ranking: 4
Highest poll position: 1 (NM)
Position in Iowa: T-6
Position in Nevada: T-5
Position in New Hampshire: T-4
Position in South Carolina: T-5

Every serious Democrat backs one of the afore-mentioned three candidates. The only thing on which the Dems seem unanimous, however, is that almost everyone has Gov. Richardson in his or her Top Three. From the supposedly ultra-left (read: ultra-delusional) Kucinophiles and starry-eyed Obama/Hope-ers to the party establishment Clintonites and Demo-Populist Edwardians, there’s no one who isn’t impressed by this guy’s resume. Here’s the kicker, though: Richardson is so liked by all sides, depending on how gruesome the mudslinging gets (not amongst the candidates but amongst their supporters – see the anti-Clinton “Big Brother” ad), Richardson may be a good compromise candidate or, if that slot goes to Sen. Edwards, a great moderate vice-presidential nominee with an almost Republican record on tax cuts, swinging the independents and fiscal conservatives to the Democratic Party. Don’t kid yourselves, though; if Richardson isn’t the nominee, he’ll take the veep slot right away.

5. Sen. Chris Dodd
National ranking: T-5
Highest poll position: 4
Position in Iowa: T-6
Position in Nevada: 4
Position in New Hampshire: T-6
Position in South Carolina: T-5

Slowly but surely, like a tortoise without a prayer, Sen. Dodd continues to trudge along, picking up a bit of support here and there every day but not doing enough to make a dent in either the rock-star tier (Obama, Clinton, Gore) or the populocentric movement (Edwards, Richardson, Clark). But the senator is convinced that he can do something in this race, which, because of his low polling numbers, makes me think he’s got something to say. Those who go to see him aren’t converted, but they are indeed convinced that this guy is one of the good Democrats. It makes me think that Dodd, far from truly running for president, might be running for Democratic leader of the Senate if and when Harry Reid (D-NV) decides to take a seat.


On the bubble: Vice-President Al Gore, Gen. Wesley Clark
Out of the loop: Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Sen. Mike Gravel

Let’s face it: Al Gore could win this in a walk if he tried – and because he despises Sen. Clinton so, if she continues to lead polls into the Autumn, he might just toss his hat in the ring, if for no other reason than to submarine the Clinton camp. Wes Clark has a great organization and could make a run, but, unlike the former Vice-President, he doesn’t have a rolodex of names on which he can rely for support (look for Clark to resurface if the Democrats take the White House in ’08 as either Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense). On the flip side, Dennis Kucinich is becoming a 21^st-Century Lyndon LaRouche, which is very sad for him; and his recent speeches, advocating grass-roots politics, haven’t helped his cause much since his Dean-like outburst at the Democratic Winter Meeting. And Mike Gravel, who never had a shot in hell, anyways, is a bigger joke than Kucinich, which is just sad.

Republican Presidential Rankings

1. Mayor Rudy Giuliani
National ranking: 1
Highest poll position: 1 (AL, CA, CT, IL, IA [statistically tied w/McCain], ME, NM, NC, OK, PA, TX
Position in Iowa: T-1
Position in Nevada: 1
Position in New Hampshire: T-2
Position in South Carolina: 2

Improbably – nay, impossibly – Rudy Giuliani is still leading the Republican nominee pack, and his lead is growing. A big reason for this is that, unlike the Democratic Party, which, though having varied views, is shaping up with three tiers of candidates from which voters can choose, the GOP itself seems in disarray. Mayor Giuliani has a history of decisions considered too radical for the hard-liners of the Republican Party; but his momentum hasn’t slowed, and his lead over Sen. McCain has only grown. And think about this: just like Obama, who was supposed to have slowed down by now, Giuliani continues to enjoy high numbers. At this rate, he will almost certainly receive at least a vice-presidential offer, though no one knows if he has any interest in waiting eight years to run for president.

2. Sen. John McCain
National ranking: 2
Highest poll position: 1 (AZ, FL, IA [statistically tied w/Giuliani], MI, MO, NV, NH, RI, SC)
Position in Iowa: T-1
Position in Nevada: T-2
Position in New Hampshire: 1
Position in South Carolina: 1

The Republican primary has long been Sen. McCain’s to lose, and he’s doing a damned good job at losing it. Like some other Republican candidates and pseudocandidates (Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich), McCain is losing numbers not because of where he’s going but because of what he’s saying. His own words from 2000 will indeed be used against him, as well they should; a number of his positions, especially on the evangelical politics of Rev. Jerry Falwell and his ilk, have literally gone around 180 degrees. McCain is still very, very popular with East-Coast Republicans, however, showing his teeth in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. But Giuliani is gaining ground, already having wrapped up the West Coast, making inroads in the East, and somehow continuing to enjoy solid numbers in the Heartland.

3. Gov. Mike Huckabee
National ranking: T-5
Highest poll position: 1 (AR)
Position in Iowa: T-8
Position in Nevada: T-5
Position in New Hampshire: T-8
Position in South Carolina: T-5

People keep telling me that I’m crazy to have Gov. Huckabee ranked over Gov. Romney. The fact remains, however, that Huckabee is an Evangelical, which religo-conservative voters understand better than Mormonism; Southern, which feeds into the odd mentality that only Southerners resonate with Republicans; a Governor, which aids my theory of Governors over Senators in presidential campaigns; and surprisingly progressive on education. I’m not saying I’d vote for this guy; his political views are antithetical to my own. But if you’re a Republican who would like a smarter version of President Bush’s platform, Huckabee is going to emerge over the next few months as the right guy for you.

4. Gov. Mitt Romney
National ranking: 4
Highest poll position: 1 (MA, UT)
Position in Iowa: T-4
Position in Nevada: 4
Position in New Hampshire: T-2
Position in South Carolina: 4

Romney’s dropping right and left. Despite high polling numbers in predictable strongholds (Massachusetts, Utah), Romney has posted significant loses, particularly in three of the four early primary states. He’s clinging to a statistical tie with Mayor Giuliani in New Hampshire, a tie that, as voters learn more about the candidates, will hurt Romney far more than Giuliani: whereas Romney’s message is targeted at the same groups as the far more socially conservative Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback, Giuliani has amassed support from the more progressive wing of the GOP, which, believe it or not, does still exist, however in-exile. Romney’s star, so bright when the campaign kicked-off, was likely irreparably damaged by his support of abortion rights in his last run for governor; by switching his position, he lost credibility with both Evangelicals and progressives.

5. Sen. Sam Brownback
National ranking: T-5
Highest poll position: 4 (AZ, MO)
Position in Iowa: T-8
Position in Nevada: T-5
Position in New Hampshire: T-6
Position in South Carolina: T-9

This is more by default than anything else. Republicans have a lot of “draft” ideas, mostly aimed at the media’s flavors of the week (Fred Thompson is a recent addition). However, not one of these has espoused any real intent. Brownback, however, has a built-in base of Evangelicals, and the more neoconservative of those (the Falwell/Robertson collective) will choose Brownback over Huckabee. However, with the falling influence of “Nevanservatives,” watch for New Evangelicals to make gains in this area – which will benefit not Brownback but Huckabee.

On the bubble: Sen. Chuck Hagel, Gov. Jeb Bush
Out of the loop: Rep. Duncan Hunter, Rep. Newt Gingrich

Don’t expect too much from Sen. Hagel; the media is pissed as hell at his press conference, and they’re not too kind to folks who take them on a ride. Gov. Bush is exactly the kind of conservative that could appease both Evangelicals and moderate-progressives, but he likely doesn’t have any interest in running. Contrast both of these guys with Rep. Hunter and former Speaker Gingrich. Gingrich has no chance at all after admitting to his affair; I still believe he’s just trying to weasel his way into being GOP Chairman. Hunter, on the other hand, has just begun making an ass of himself at every turn, sort of like a Republican Kucinich.