I need somebody groovy

First, some notes:

I haven't written about the debates yet because there hasn't been anything to report until now, after seeing the horrific way CNN dealt with them. To all you political pundits out there: When Chris Matthews is the best host of a debate so far, we've got some serious problems. Wolf Blitzer was horrendous, possibly the worst moderator in the history of civilized debate. Larry King and Anderson Cooper, for all their bluster about the best political team in news, both sounded like hacks. Speaking of hacks, party hacks were all CNN bothered to hire for debate analysis, and, from the way CNN presented it, only Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, or Mitt Romney will be elected president.

Boy, are they gonna be disappointed when they read this analysis.

The debates have been pretty tame, for the most part; but there has been some shuffling. We've seen Ron Paul come out to represent the best in Republicans. Mike Huckabee looks stronger every week. Barack Obama is succumbing to his flaws, while the party hacks like Tommy Thompson and Chris Dodd must be close to dropping out of the race altogether. But the CNN debates over the last few days have brought a few issues to light.

First, the national media are paying far too much attention to national polling numbers, but not enough attention to national trends. Yes, Hillary Clinton is leading Democratic polls by a significant margin. Yes, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani continue to duke it out for the top spot in the GOP. But voter dissatisfaction is higher than most pundits are willing to admit, especially in the Donkey Party. How else to explain why Bill Richardson, who's got oodles of experience but does little else than tout his resume and suffer through bad debate performances, is up to 10% in Iowa? How else to explain that, with all the already-announced candidates in the Republican Party, Fred Thompson is still getting a big push to run? How else to explain why there is a small but significant coalition of both Republicans and Democrats urging Mike Bloomberg and Chuck Hagel to run in an independent bid?

Little about this makes any sense to those pundits; but those pundits aren't paying attention. Ron Paul is a peon, a joke; and yet he's getting massive internet support. Barack Obama is solidly the #2 Democratic candidate and, according to most polls, the only one who can beat all Republicans; but he's not looking nearly as presidential and eloquent as he did a mere two and a half ago. And don't even get me started on what seems to be a growing movement centering around the improbable Joe Biden.

With that said, here is my analysis of the two CNN debates. Keep in mind that these were easily the worst debates; yet that wading through the crap of Wolf Blitzer and his retarded cohorts actually gave us our best looks yet at many of these candidates.


EVALUATION RUBRIC

Winners/Losers
Leadership: Most presidential
Authenticity: Most genuine
Moral: Displayed greatest moral characteristics
Ethical: Displayed greatest ethical characteristics
Issues: Dealt best with the pure issues
Eloquence: Spoke most convincing
Passion: Displayed most care about the issues
Wit: Had quickest comebacks
Humor: Was funniest
Energy: Seemed most vital, alive

Connection/Alienation
Country: as head of state
Nation: as political leader
People: as leader of individuals
Morals: as leader of moralists
Seculars: as leader of secularists
Party: appeal to party
Base: appeal to ideology
Indies: appeal to independent voters
Undies: appeal to undecided voters

Second Democratic Debate

The second Democratic debate was a huge surprise. John Edwards sidestepped Barack Obama and began sniping with Hillary Clinton, as if they were the last two standing. Chris Dodd proved he’s little more than a bleeding Democrat with a capital “D” – in other words, he’s a good guy, but a party hack. Mike Gravel didn’t do anything to help his campaign, although fellow leftist Dennis Kucinich sounded, for the second straight debate, reasoned, purposeful, and honest. And Clinton and John Edwards seemed to step over everyone, beginning to run for President rather than the Democratic nomination.

The biggest surprise this debate, however, was the emergence of Joe Biden. Though he has a long history of tripping over his own mouth, Biden took the lead on many issues, especially his passionate plea on a no-fly zone around Sudan. He also benefited from the outsider status to which CNN consigned him; he seemed like a genuine Washington outsider, casting front-runners Clinton and Obama as insiders.

There were two major disappointments here. Though Obama did score points with good wit and excellent timing, he had little substantive to say, aiming at a populist Democratic message. He seems to have conceded this race to Clinton already, but John Edwards hasn’t. Edwards managed to capitalize on Obama’s about-face from well-spoken celebrity to stammering sally. The other disappointment was Bill Richardson. Already up to 10% in Iowa (he was at 1% in January), he stood to gain the most from a breakout performance. Instead, the governor resumed resume-touting, and frankly is looking far more like a Secretary of State than a president.

All that being said, Hillary Clinton showed why she’s the front-runner; she was poised, thoughtful, and intelligent. Yet she also showed her greatest weakness to be her simultaneous greatest strength: Bill. Former President Clinton is indeed a boost to most Democratic voters; however, the fact remains that he is simply less personally likeable than Elizabeth Edwards. If ever there were an election in which the candidate’s spouse could conceivably change the outcome, it’s this one.

Winner: Joe Biden
Leadership: Hillary Clinton
Authenticity: John Edwards
Moral: Dennis Kucinich
Ethical: Joe Biden
Issues: Joe Biden
Eloquence: Hillary Clinton
Passion: Joe Biden
Wit: Barack Obama
Humor: Hillary Clinton
Energy: Joe Biden

Loser: Chris Dodd
Leadership: Bill Richardson
Authenticity: Chris Dodd
Moral: Mike Gravel
Ethical: Hillary Clinton
Issues: Chris Dodd
Eloquence: Chris Dodd
Passion: Chris Dodd
Wit: Chris Dodd
Humor: Chris Dodd
Energy: Chris Dodd

Biggest Gainer: Joe Biden
Leadership: Joe Biden
Authenticity: Joe Biden
Moral: Joe Biden
Ethical: Joe Biden
Issues: Joe Biden
Eloquence: Hillary Clinton
Passion: Joe Biden
Wit: Barack Obama
Humor: Hillary Clinton
Energy: Joe Biden

Biggest Loser: Bill Richardson
Leadership: Bill Richardson
Authenticity: Bill Richardson
Moral: Chris Dodd
Ethical: Bill Richardson
Issues: Mike Gravel
Eloquence: Barack Obama
Passion: Bill Richardson
Wit: Bill Richardson
Humor: Bill Richardson
Energy: Bill Richardson

Connection: Joe Biden
Country: Barack Obama
Nation: Hillary Clinton
People: John Edwards
Morals: John Edwards
Seculars: Joe Biden
Party: Hillary Clinton
Base: Joe Biden
Indies: Joe Biden
Undies: Joe Biden

Alienation: Bill Richardson
Country: Bill Richardson
Nation: Barack Obama
People: Chris Dodd
Morals: Bill Richardson
Seculars: Mike Gravel
Party: Bill Richardson
Base: Hillary Clinton
Indies: Chris Dodd
Undies: Chris Dodd

Third Republican Debate

This debate was all about two candidates: Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee. Sounding positively Reaganesque, Huckabee won the crowd over with a populist message that in many ways mirrored, but drew sharp distinctions with, George W. Bush’s 2000 primary campaign. He was poised, and, excepting Ron Paul, seemed the most “Republican” of the candidates.

There is no reason why Jim Gilmore continues to run. He has no chance at the nomination, and is, quite frankly, dull. Neither should Tommy Thompson bother; he all but destroyed his chances with his malprop of the gays in the workplace question. And Sam Brownback was a major disappointment, sounding oftentimes like a conservative, 2000-model Al Gore.

The most damage, however, was done to Mitt Romney’s chances. When confronted with the question of gays openly serving in the military, he fell back, once again, on the “I changed my mind” excuse. Republicans might have been willing to go along with that on abortion, and maybe even on civil unions; but there is no way in hell that Romney has any chance after falling on that excuse a third time.

Rudy Giuliani also has some issues to work out. Unlike in the first debate, where Giuliani seemed poised and ready, he instead seemed nervous. He can’t win over the moralists or Christian conservatives in the party; yet, unlike Ron Paul, who’s been blacklisted by everyone from Sean Hannity to Michael Steele, he isn’t trying to define himself as “different.” The reason why Paul stands a better chance at nabbing the nomination than Giuliani is because he has stuck to his guns, much like Ronald Reagan did in 1979.

Finally, as far as Paul is concerned, he proved yet again why he should be the front-runner. He stands for traditional conservative values, and he managed to drum up a surprising amount of applause from the audience. As the top-tier candidates falter, and as it looks more and more like Fred Thompson is a Wes Clark, Paul and Huckabee may prove to be the two who manage to last the longest.

Winner: Ron Paul
Leadership: Ron Paul
Authenticity: John McCain
Moral: Mike Huckabee
Ethical: Ron Paul
Issues: Ron Paul
Eloquence: Mike Huckabee
Passion: John McCain
Wit: Mike Huckabee
Humor: Mike Huckabee
Energy: Ron Paul

Loser: Jim Gilmore
Leadership: Jim Gilmore
Authenticity: Tommy Thompson
Moral: Mitt Romney
Ethical: Sam Brownback
Issues: Sam Brownback
Eloquence: Jim Gilmore
Passion: Jim Gilmore
Wit: Tommy Thompson
Humor: Tommy Thompson
Energy: Jim Gilmore

Biggest Gainer: Mike Huckabee
Leadership: Mike Huckabee
Authenticity: John McCain
Moral: Mike Huckabee
Ethical: Mike Huckabee
Issues: Ron Paul
Eloquence: Mike Huckabee
Passion: John McCain
Wit: Mike Huckabee
Humor: Mike Huckabee
Energy: Mike Huckabee

Biggest Loser: Mitt Romney
Leadership: Jim Gilmore
Authenticity: Mitt Romney
Moral: Mitt Romney
Ethical: Sam Brownback
Issues: Rudy Giuliani
Eloquence: Rudy Giuliani
Passion: Sam Brownback
Wit: Tommy Thompson
Humor: Tom Tancredo
Energy: Jim Gilmore

Connection: Mike Huckabee
Country: Mike Huckabee
Nation: John McCain
People: Mike Huckabee
Morals: Mike Huckabee
Seculars: Ron Paul
Party: Ron Paul
Base: Mike Huckabee
Indies: Ron Paul
Undies: Ron Paul

Alienation: Mitt Romney
Country: Tom Tancredo
Nation: Mitt Romney
People: Mitt Romney
Morals: Rudy Giuliani
Seculars: Rudy Giuliani
Party: Mitt Romney
Base: Mitt Romney
Indies: Mitt Romney
Undies: Mitt Romney